Indicative votes round 2


Usually by now I’d have formulated a rough idea about what I think is going to happen next. Or I’d have been able to give you a rough idea of what the results of the indicitive votes actually means. But I can’t tonight, personally or in any use of my political “brain” come to any reasonable conclusions (primarily because of my need for sleep)

I could say we’re all just a little more screwed tonight, but that isn’t exactly erudite or a helpful answer to the questions of ‘what next’ and ‘what does this mean’.

My analysis will follow in the morrow. I will say that I sense that the return later this week with a run-off between May’s Deal and probably Customs Union (from tonight and last week’s indicative votes) may just be another step towards a cliff edge, and possibly will create a false-dichotomy of two things that aren’t mutually exclusive – and that May risks losing her hard-fought previous won over votes for her deal because Customs Union is exactly the kind of thing a fair amount of her own party wants, though will they be willing to deny the whip?

I don’t know just now what I think, but I’ll return tomorrow with actual thoughts…

PS – I wouldn’t put too much store in Nick Boles MPs resignation of the Conservative Whip, it literally just means he refuses to allow them to use a three-line whip (not physical) on him (in a political sense); he is as far as I can tell still a Conservative MP. Also, it doesn’t change the Government’s numbers enough, as they still officially have their confidence & supply deal with the DUP, and so technically have a “working majority” of 10 actual votes they’re theoretically able to count on – that’s not working out well for them, but more tomorrow on that too!

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